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Cake day: June 12th, 2023

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  • Utter bullshit. The polling companies are often separate from the media companies. Some are even academic institutions. And they are incentivised to be accurate. Imagine being the one polling organisation that can call elections!

    What y’all are misunderstanding, however, is the difference between poll numbers and probability of winning. Harris definitely polls better but due to the electoral college the probability that she wins in lower than poll numbers suggests.